[SMM Analysis: Regional Lead Ingot Supply Remains Tight, Limited Social Inventory Buildup]
SMM Oct. 20: According to SMM, as of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions reached 37,700 mt, up 1,800 mt from October 13 and nearly 100 mt from October 16.
Recently, maintenance at primary lead smelters in northern China has not yet concluded, while the pace of production resumptions at secondary lead enterprises has been slower than expected. Regional lead ingot supply remains tight, with limited spot cargo availability in the market. Smelters are generally refusing to budge on prices, with mainstream producing regions quoting premiums of 50–100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. During this period, some suppliers transferred lead ingots from southwest China to the east China market, providing a minor supply supplement. However, amid downstream enterprises purchasing as needed, social inventories of lead ingots saw only a slight increase.
In late October, maintenance and production resumptions at primary lead smelters will coexist, and regional supply tightness is expected to persist. Meanwhile, as temperatures drop across various regions, heating has commenced in some northern areas, which may trigger air quality controls again. Attention should be paid to potential impacts on vehicle transportation and the expected prolongation of lead ingot delivery cycles due to subsequent air quality management.
Data Source Statement: Data not from public sources are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not as decision-making advice.
